No, It’s Not ‘Super Flu’. Here’s What’s Going On

You may have seen headlines talking about a so-called ‘super flu’. That phrase makes for great clickbait, but it is not scientifically or medically meaningful. All we are seeing is normal, seasonal influenza.

Flu (as in proper flu, the one caused by the influenza virus) is always unpleasant and can be really serious, especially for the vulnerable: the very old, the very young, the pregnant, the obese and people with underlying conditions. It kills both directly and indirectly by making other conditions worse.

The difference this year is that flu has arrived earlier than usual, and more people are susceptible at the same time. That combination is what’s driving the number and the headlines.

In the UK flu normally peaks after Christmas. This year it has arrived well before that. Recent data show that flu test positivity has risen sharply and hospital admissions are high.

Cases are most common in children and working-age adults, but the steepest rise in hospital admissions is in older people, particularly the over-75s, who are most at risk of complications. This pattern is typical for influenza – but the volume of cases is putting significant pressure on an already stretched NHS.

So, why flu is earlier this year? Seasonal flu viruses change constantly. This year, the dominant strain is influenza A H3N2. Towards the end of the southern hemisphere’s flu season (our summer), this virus picked up an unusually large number of genetic mutations. That meant people in the UK had less underlying immunity than usual when flu began circulating here. The result is an earlier start to the season, and higher case numbers sooner.

Importantly, there is no evidence that this strain causes more severe illness than flu normally does. There are simply more infections – so the small proportion of people who become quite unwell adds up quickly. Calling this a ‘super flu’ risks distracting us from what actually matters.

Respiratory viruses such as flu and COVID disrupt productions because they spread person-to-person and so can cause multiple absences at the same time. If this includes key cast or crew it can be very disruptive.

The most effective steps are:

• Focus on reducing respiratory spread rather than obsessing about surface cleaning.
• Encourage cast and crew to report symptoms early and stay away when unwell.
• Support sensible ventilation and distancing in crowded or enclosed spaces.
• Use masks pragmatically where risk is higher.

These steps will help protect people, and help keep productions running. General and surface hygiene is desirable, obviously, but surface transmission is far less likely to shut a production down.

We already know what works. Measures introduced during COVID dramatically reduced flu transmission too, to the point that one flu strain (B/Yamagata) disappeared entirely for a time and may be extinct. So, simple actions still matter:

• Staying away from work or social events when unwell
• Good ventilation indoors
• Covering coughs and sneezes and disposing of tissues
• Wearing a mask if you have mild symptoms but must be around others
• Regular handwashing, particularly before eating and after using shared equipment

What about masks?

Masks are not perfect, but they are not useless either. The ‘masks don’t work (so I’m not going to wear one)‘ is a political position and is not supported by the data or the experts.

Infection control works by layering multiple imperfect protections, making it harder for viruses to spread. A common analogy is hurdles: an infection might be able to jump one or two, but if you have plenty, it will have a hard time jumping all of them. Think of it this way: you’re planning a complex stunt with many moving parts. But none of the controls are 100% effective. Do you:

1. Execute all the controls as best you possibly can?
2. Because none of them are guaranteed to be 100% effective, don’t bother with any of them?

There you go.

Do the vaccines work?

Yes. Despite the changes in this year’s virus, data from England and Scotland show the flu vaccine is effective at preventing severe disease and hospitalisation. But like all flu vaccines, it does not reliably stop infection or mild illness. That is not a failure.

Flu has a short incubation period, which means the immune system can’t always block infection at the door. You’ll develop symptoms before the vaccine-induced part of the immune system ‘wakes up’ and gets to work – this takes a couple of days for any invading bug.

What flu (and COVID) vaccination does extremely well, though, is keep people out of the hospital or the mortuary.

On the other hand, measles virus has a long incubation period, typically 10–14 days from exposure to symptoms. That long delay gives the immune system plenty of time to respond after an exposure. The virus is stopped before it can establish a productive infection: it cannot get a foothold.