Meteorologists are predicting that a strong or potentially ‘super’ El Niño event is likely later this year. While its effects won’t be felt equally everywhere, El Niño has the potential to influence weather patterns across large parts of the globe.

El Niño forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a naturally-occurring climate system first described in the 16th Century. ENSO also includes El Niño’s cooler counterpart, La Niña. These events typically occur every two to seven years and can last for many months.

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface water westwards across the Pacific, but during an El Niño event those winds weaken, allowing unusually warm water to accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific. This alters atmospheric circulation patterns and can influence the weather thousands of miles away.

The result isn’t simply ‘more bad weather’. Instead, weather patterns can become far less predictable and historical climate assumptions become unreliable. For production teams, that could have implications for location access, logistics, emergency planning, crew welfare and schedule resilience.

Potential Impact on Productions

Heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides can affect access routes, unit bases, parking compounds and filming locations. Productions operating in remote areas may find contingency arrangements become increasingly important.

In some regions, El Niño conditions are associated with higher temperatures and prolonged heat events. This can affect cast and crew welfare, increase fatigue, reduce productivity and place additional demands on welfare and medical provision.

Regions already vulnerable to drought conditions may experience elevated wildfire risk. Productions filming in rural, woodland or grassland environments should remain alert to rapidly changing conditions and possible restrictions on access.

River levels, coastal conditions and water quality can all be affected by unusual weather patterns. Productions involving boats, diving, swimming, water stunts or marine filming may require closer monitoring of local conditions.

Thunderstorms, high winds, reduced visibility and rapidly changing weather conditions can affect helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft and drone operations. Weather-related cancellations and delays may become more common.

Outdoor events may experience challenges associated with ground conditions, crowd welfare, temporary structures and transport infrastructure. Site access and emergency planning arrangements may require additional scrutiny.

International Productions Face Greater Exposure

Productions operating across multiple territories may encounter different El Niño impacts in different regions, depending on location.

Region Typical Concerns
Australia Heat, drought, wildfire risk
Indonesia Drought, wildfire smoke
India Monsoon disruption
East Africa Flooding in some regions
Western South America Severe rainfall and flooding
Southern USA Increased storminess
Pacific Islands Significant weather disruption

Planning Ahead

Introducing SCOUT

SCOUT is our new, intelligent pre-production planning tool designed for film, television and live events. Rather than relying on static checklists, it analyses how location, season, environment, production scale and operational activities interact to identify issues that could affect feasibility, safety and delivery. It’s not a risk assessment tool, it’s designed to identify potential challenges long before a formal risk assessment takes place.

This includes highlighting weather and climate-related challenges specific to the proposed location, such as hurricane exposure in the Caribbean, monsoon disruption in South Asia, wildfire risk in Australia and California, extreme heat in the Middle East, seasonal flooding in East Africa, winter access limitations in alpine regions, or the operational impacts of climate patterns such as El Niño.

By identifying these factors early, SCOUT helps production teams focus on the issues most likely to affect access, logistics, emergency response, permitting and overall production resilience.

Clients can explore the beta version of SCOUT right now. 

FIND OUT MORE

The key lesson for production teams is not to assume that ‘normal’ seasonal conditions will prevail. When planning shoots, events or large-scale productions later this year, consideration should be given to:

  • Seasonal climate forecasts alongside standard weather forecasts
  • Alternative locations and contingency plans
  • Access and evacuation arrangements
  • Emergency response capability
  • Welfare provisions during extreme weather
  • Schedule flexibility
  • Infrastructure resilience

Weather-related disruption is not new to our industry. However, if a strong El Niño develops, productions and events may face increased uncertainty across a range of operational areas. When planning productions and events the message is simple:

  • Build flexibility into plans early

  • Challenge assumptions based solely on historical conditions

The extent of any impact will depend on location, timing and activity, but – as always – early planning, good intelligence and proportionate contingency arrangements remain the best tools for managing uncertainty.

Plus you now have SCOUT to help predict potential issues based on location, season and other variables. You can find out more here.

Specialist: Amy Holtby

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Amy is a Senior Consultant with First Option. She has a certification in Business Sustainability Management from Cambridge University. In the climate change module for her Combined Science degree she clearly remembers an assignment on domestic water usage, working out how much water there was in a bath compared to a 3 minute power shower. The bath won!

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Article last updated on Jun 13th, 2026

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